Newark by-election: Should the Tories be rattled? New poll puts UKIP in the lead, but can it be trusted?
A poll on a UKIP website puts the party in the lead in today's by-election.
It puts their candidate, Mr Roger Helmer, on 31% (651 of the 2,100 people polled), ahead of the Conservatives' Mr Robert Jenrick on 30% (630).
It is claimed the poll has been carried out by students at Loughborough University and has Labour in third on 21% (441), with the Lib Dems on 7% (147) and others on 11% (231).
However, the university has been on in the last few minutes saying it can't locate anyone responsible for it.
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If it is bone-fide, it contradicts an earlier poll by Lord Ashcroft on Monday which put the Conservatives ahead of UKIP by 15 points.
It found Mr Jenrick on 42%, with UKIP second on 27% and Labour third on 20%.