Police demand 'over capacity' as report identifies desperate need for officers
A new report has found Nottinghamshire police are in need of extra officers to cope with predicted demand.
The research commissioned by the Notts police and crime commissioner, Paddy Tipping, warned over the next four years, hundreds of extra police officers will be needed to meet growing pressures.
It revealed Notts police has been "at or over capacity" and needs an additional 260 officers by 2023, resulting in an extra 29,000 hours every month for the police force to handle.
A new demand model, drawn up by national crime experts, Crest Advisory, has exposed the real gap between reactive police demand and resources in the county - and the provision needed to plug it.
Rising levels of recorded violent and sexual offences are partly to blame, which includes greater reporting of historic offences. These offences came to represent 64% of "all crime" demand (excluding non-crime incidents) in 2018, compared to 53% in 2014.
The model which is bespoke to Notts police has been built to match its unique structure and is based on a number of statistical forecasting techniques that predict the type of demand and improve planning over the next four years.
It also provides clear evidence on which policing policy decisions can be made and helps underline the case for increased national funding.
Paddy Tipping explained this is the first time that actual demand has been modelled in this way, providing an accurate assessment of what is needed to protect emergency services in the long-term.
"This is precisely what Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) have been asking of the service. This data is backed up by hard evidence and gives us an insight into the challenges facing our unique county in the coming years," he said. "As the research shows, demand is already outstripping available resources and it is critical we act now to boost our capacity in the places where they are most needed. Any further force efficiencies within its current budget would be at the margins according to the report."
According to the report, the force has 172,259 available officer hours per month to respond to reactive incidents and crimes reported through the control room. However, this does not take into account of proactive work including counter terrorism or organised crime.
And by July next year, the gap between available hours and reactive demand is set to hit 23,500 hours and will climb to 29,000 per month by 2023, requiring an extra £19.2m in additional officers by then.
Craig Guildford, chief constable, said the Crest report is a helpful piece of analysis which he will be sharing with his fellow chiefs, The Home Office and HMICFRS.
He said: "I've challenged, tested and corroborated a large amount of the reactive demand modelling with over 150 cops and it absolutely underlines to me that my officers and staff are individually and collectively producing a huge amount of work on behalf of the public. They carry a significant workload when compared with peers and I'm incredibly humbled with the amount of brilliant results and service they deliver given the demand we deal with.
"We've increased our officer numbers back up to the 2000 mark and I echo many of the comments made by Sir Thomas Windsor in his recent annual report, as I look forward to how the CSR and national funding formula work will hopefully lead to a positive outcome both locally and nationally."
The model is being presented to a meeting of the National Police Chiefs Council on July 17 to highlight the benefits for future demand mapping.
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